Huringa Kitchin. huringa ohaoha wā-poto. huringa Juglar. huringa Kuznets

Ko te huringa ohaoha - he uara tātāu o te hua motu matotoru i roto i te wā roa. Tenei hekenga hua ranei i GDP e pā te ki te wā o te whanaketanga. He maha ngā momo o taua oscillations, e rerekē i roto i to ratou roa. Te nuinga o te wā-poto - huringa Kitchin, te roanga o nei - 3-5 tau. Kua ako hoki Ētahi economists te pātai o rerekē production kerekere. He huringa Juglar, Kuznets ko Kondratiev hoki Funds.

ngā matua

I roto i te akoranga o tona whanaketanga, rite te ōhanga kei roto i te wā whanaketanga tere, me te stagnation. whakamārama huringa Kitchin te rerekē wā-poto. kei te uhi ngaru Kondratieff te hawhe huringa rau tau. Ko te ariā o te huringa pakihi i roto i te tikanga whanui tikanga he wā o te wā e ngā tetahi anake wā o te whakatika me te hinga, pa tonu tahi i te tahi. E mea faufaa teie mau taahiraa e rua. He tohu o te timatanga me te mutunga o te huringa ko te ōrau o te tupu o tūturu hua motu matotoru. Ahakoa maha e tino ohorere enei rerekē i roto i te mahi pakihi.

History o te ako

I whakakahore te ariā o te huringa ōhanga i ngā māngai o te kura puāwaitanga. Ratou oraraa, i roto i te mahi, e faataa ratou e pakanga me ngā riri. Ratou tuatahi tūhuratia e Sismondi. Kua oti rawa tona mahi ki te aitua i roto i 1825 i roto i Ingarangi, i ko te tuatahi raruraru ōhanga puta i roto i te rangimarie. Sismondi me tona hoa Robert Owen huaina a reira te take o te overproduction me underconsumption, meinga e kore ōrite i roto i te tohatoha o moni i waenganui i te taupori. Ko ratou i roto i te manakohia o wawaotanga kāwanatanga i roto i te ōhanga, me te hapori. I roto i te porowhita mātauranga, kihai i tonu rongonui ratou mahi. Heoi, i runga i te whakaaro e ko te take o mōrearea i raro i-kohi, ka reira ka kia hanga he kura Keynesian pai-mohiotia. I whakawhanakehia ariā Sismondi e Charles Dunoyer. hoatu mua e ia te ariā o huringa tāupe. kite Karl Marx te mōrearea wā rite te raruraru matua o tetahi hapori capitalist ka tohu te revolution kominiusi. ka karanga a Genri Dzhordzh nounou ki te whenua te take matua o recessions, a te whakaaro te introduction o te tāke kotahi i runga i te take production.

momo huringa

I te tau 1860, te tuatahi tautuhi ohanga French Klement Zhyuglyar te rerekē ōhanga ki te auautanga o te 7-11 tau. Tohe Yozef Shumpeter e ngā ratou o wha wāhanga:

• Roha. He he he hua i roto i te hanga pukapuka, maranga utu, hinga ngä päpätanga huamoni.
• Crisis. I tenei wā, hu'ahu'a nga whakawhitinga kararehe, me e haere maha pakihi me ngā kamupene kaihau.
• Ōhanga. ki te hinga me ngä päpätanga huamoni, i roto i te rerekē, kei te tipu tonu Utu me te hanga pukapuka.
• Whakaora. Exchange anō-tīmatanga ki te mahi i roto i hinga utu me moni.

hono Schumpeter te ora ōhanga ki te tupu o te hanga pai, whakawhirinaki i roto i nga kiritaki heke mai o te tono tōpū me utu. I roto i te waenganui o te rautau XX, whakaarohia e ia he typology o huringa mo ratou roanga. I roto ia ratou:

• huringa Kitchin. E titauhia te 3 ki te 5 tau.
• huringa Juglar. Ko tōna roanga - 7-11 tau.
• huringa Kuznets. Kei te whai pānga te reira i ki haumi i roto i te hanganga. E te reira 15 ki te 25 tau.
• poipoi Kondrat'eva huringa tukanga roa ranei. E te reira i 45 ki te 60 tau.

I teie mahana, te moni i roto i huringa heke haere paku. Ko e tika ana ki te meka e kore e macroeconomics hou tautoko te whakaaro o oscillations wā auau tenei.

huringa Kitchin

E te reira e pā ana ki 40 marama. Enei rerekē wā-poto i te tuatahi whakawakia e Hohepa Kitchin i roto i 1920. whakaaro tōna take ko te takamuri rangitahi i roto i te kaupapa o te kōrero e arahi ki te whakaroa umanga whakatau-hanga. Umanga huru ki te whakapai ake i te āhuatanga arumoni i te whakanui ake production. Nā tēnei, i roto i te whakamahi tonu i te mahi, me te whakapaipai. Ka rite ki te hua, i muri i te tetahi wa, waipuke te mākete riro ki te taonga. ino roa to ratou kounga e tika ana ki te ture o Mea. taka tono, te utu - e timata i te taua taonga ki te opehia ake i roto i warehouses. I muri i te tetahi wa, tīmata te kamupene ki te whakaiti hanga. Na haere huringa Kitchin.

Pūtake me ngā huanga

Kitchin huringa ōhanga e pā ana ki te kore o te taea o te aromatawai inamata o tikanga mākete. Me ngā umanga i ki timata ki te whakapiki ake i hanga, a ki te whakatau mehemea ki te whakaiti i tona rōrahi. Ko te roa, ko te tika ki te meka e kore e ite tonu kaitukumahi e kaha inaianei i runga i te mākete - supply tono ranei. Na e hiahia ana ratou ki te tirohia hoki te mōhiohio. mau te reira me te whakatinanatanga o rongoā i roto i te mahi. E kore e pera ngāwari ki te kitea tonu kaimahi hou takoto atu nga mea tawhito ranei. Ko te kupu, e pā ana wā-poto huringa Kitchin ki te roa i roto i te kohinga, me te tukatuka o ngā mōhiohio.

Yozef Kitchin: Whakarāpopoto

Ko ia he mātanga Ingarangi i roto i te mara o te tatauranga me te kaipakihi. mahi Yozef Kitchin i te ahumahi maina i roto i Āwherika ki te Tonga. I te tau 1923 ia ia ka anga te ako o huringa pakihi wā-poto i roto i te United Basileia me te Hononga o Amerika i roto i te wā i 1890 ki te 1922. Ko e pā ana ki 40 tau tau ratou roanga. Ko te hua o tona rangahau, whakaraupapahia e ia te mahi ui "Cycles me ngā i roto i ngā āhuatanga ōhanga." Te faataa ra te kaituhi te aroaro o taua wiri tauhohe hinengaro ki te aratau capitalist o hanga, me te lags te wa i roto i te tuku o te mōhiohio e pā te tukanga o ngā umanga whakatau-hanga. I roto i te mau parau te tahi atu, āhuatanga te huringa Kitchin e ture o te supply o taonga e hinonga i roto i ngā o ratou hiahia i roto i te mākete.

He wā o te 7-11 tau

Ko e rua ngā wā roa atu Kitchin huringa Juglar. Heoi whakaturia ana e hoki tona pūtaiao oraraa i roto i te 1862. I roto i te take i tāutuhia rerekē huaina Juglar huringa i roto i te haumi i roto i ngā rawa pūmau, e kore noa te taumata o te mahi. I roto i te 2010, he ako te whakamahi i te tātari spectral whakapumautia te oraraa o taua huringa i roto i te akiaki o te hua motu matotoru o te ao.

huringa Kuznets

Tenei tümanako oscillation. I rangahaua tuatahi ratou Haimona Kuznets i te 1930. tango ratou e pā ana ki 15-25 tau. Ko te take mō tēnei kaituhi huri taiāwhio i huaina tukanga tatauranga. tirohia e ia te tomonga o kaiheke me kotokoto hanga hāngai ana. āhuatanga hoki Smith ratou rite huringa hanganga haumi. Ētahi economists hou hono nga huringa raraunga ki rerekē-tau 18 i roto i te utu i runga i te whenua kia rite ki te take o te hanga. Huaputa kite ratou i te whakataki o te tāke motuhake. Heoi, e whakapono ana Fred Harrison e kore e tauturu i te reira noa e faaiti i cyclicality. I roto i te 1968 whakahē Hauri te ako Kuznets. tohe ia e i tātarihia te raraunga he. Heoi, ka mea a Smith e tāutuhia te huringa taea te kite ratou i roto i te tupu o te ao hua motu matotoru, me kahore te whakamahi o te tātari whakaaro ratou.

rangahau Kondratieff

Te nuinga o huringa pakihi roa i te roanga o 45-60 tau. Ko te ohanga Soviet pai-mohiotia whakapono Kondratieff e pā rerekē rāngai katoa o te ōhanga. arotahi ia i runga i utu, ngä päpätanga huamoni. Ia huringa Kondratiev whakanuia wha wāhanga. Te taupū matua, i ako ia, ko te hanga i roto i ngā o te uara. Ki te rā, i reira he ngaru roa e rima:

• Mai i 1890 ki te 1850, e tika ana ki te ahua o te pūkaha mamaoa me te timatanga o te whakamahi whānui o te miro.
• Mai i 1850 ki te 1900. Ko te pūkaha maitai tereina me te maitai production matua.
• Mai i 1900 ki te 1950 e pā ana ki te tohatoha hiko me te whanaketanga o te ahumahi matū.
• Mai i 1950 ki te 1990 rāngai hei pharmaceuticals propulsive me AUTOMOBILES.
• poipoi New e pā ana ki ngā mōhiohio me te hangarau kōrero rite te pūkaha o te ahunga whakamua.

I tua atu ki te whakamārama hangarau, kua hono etahi pūtaiao roa huringa Kondratieff ki huringa taupori, nounou ki whenua me te nama deflation. He maha ngā putanga hou o te ariā o te ohanga Soviet. Ka taea te wehea ratou ki e rua ngā rōpū. E arotahi ana te tuatahi i runga i te huringa i roto i te hangarau. Ko te tuarua tirohia te huringa nama. Heoi, e kore e maha economists farii i te ariā Kondratieff ngaru roa. Ahakoa atu tautohetia e huri noa te mea nga tau whakaaro te timatanga o ia huringa. Ko te tīmatanga o te raruraru pūtea ao taka pai nui i roto i te ariā Kondratieff, kïia e te timatanga o te wā o te heke.