Rārangi inenga

tātari Hokinga taea te tāpiri ki te tikanga tauanga o ako te hononga i waenganui i ngā taurangi motuhake (ti'aturi, me te motuhake). I roto i tenei take, ka karanga te taurangi motuhake e "covariates" me ti'aturi - "criterial". A, no te whakahaere i te tātari inenga rārangi e ti'aturi kanohi tāupe te puka o te tauine wā. He he he tūponotanga o te aroaro o te whanaungatanga kore-rārangi i waenganui i ngā taurangi e pā ana ki te tauine wā, engari kua kē tenei raruraru kua faatiti'aifarohia e tikanga o te inenga kore-rārangi, e kore te mea nei i te tumu parau o tenei tuhinga.

I whakamahia Linear inenga rawa pai rite i roto i ngā tātai pāngarau, me i roto i ngā akoranga ōhanga e hāngai ana i runga i raraunga tauanga.

Na whakaaroa tenei te inenga atu. Mai i te tirohanga o te tikanga pāngarau o te whakatau i te pānga rārangi i waenganui i ētahi taurangi e taea te māngai regression rārangi rite te tātai: y = te bx +. Hoki te whakamārama o tenei ture e taea te kitea i roto i tetahi pukapuka i runga i Econometrics.

A, no te whakawhänui i te maha o te mātakitaki (ki runga, ki te maha n-th o nga wa) whiwhi e te inenga rārangi ohie, faahoho'ahia e te tātai:

yi = A + bxi + ei,

te wahi ei - motuhake, ōrite tohaina, taurangi matapōkere.

I roto i tenei tuhinga e hiahia ana ahau ki te utu i atu te aro ki tenei ariā i te hi'oraa o te forecasting te utu i mua nei e hāngai ana i runga i ngā raraunga o mua. I roto i tenei rohe, tata tatou te kaha te inenga rārangi whakamahi i te tikanga tapawhā iti rawa, e āwhina ki te hanga i te raina tika "tino pai" i roto i te maha etahi o ngā uara o ngā utu. Ko te raraunga tāuru whakamahia e te wāhi utu, te auraa tiketike, iti, kati ranei tuwhera, me te toharite o enei uara (hei tauira, te moni o te mōrahi me te mōkito wehea e rua). Ano, i enei raraunga i mua i te hanga i te aho e tika ana e taea e murua e mānia.

Ka rite ki whakahuatia i runga ake, te regression rārangi maha whakamahia e te kaitätari ki te whakatau i te au i runga i te pūtake o te utu, me te wā. I roto i tenei take, ka whakatau i te taha o te tohu inenga o te nui o ngā huringa utu ia wae o te wā. Ko tētahi o nga tikanga mo te whakatau tika te whakamahi i tenei tohu ko te whakamahi o te generator tohu, e whai ake nei i te ia o te tokonga ake inenga. Ki te whakamana i te pinakitanga pai (maranga rārangi inenga) hoko ko ki te mea nui ake i te kore te uara tohu. I roto i te pinakitanga tōraro (whakaiti inenga) mo te hoko kia i ngā uara kino o te tohu (iti iho i te kore).

Ka rite ki te whakamahia i roto i te whakatau i te rārangi pai e ōrite ana ki te maha etahi o ngā utu, titau te tikanga iti rawa-tapawhā e te hātepe e whai ake nei:

- Ko te katoa faaiteraa o te rerekētanga o tapawhā o utu, me te aho inenga o;

- Ko te ōwehenga o tenei moni, me te maha o tutaki i te whānuitanga o te raupapa raraunga inenga;

- i runga i te hua computed pakiaka tapawha, e hāngai ana ki te ine mahora.

Simple Linear Hokinga Whārite kua te tauira:

y (x) = f (x) ^,

te wahi - aroaro āhuatanga hua te tāupe pararau;

x - whakamārama tāupe motuhake ranei;

^ Tohu i te ngaro o te tino hononga mahi ki waenganui i nga taurangi x me te y. Na reira, i roto i ia take ngā, kia ngā te y tāupe o taua ngā:

y = yx + ε,

te wahi - te raraunga hua tūturu;

uh - raraunga hua ariā whakaritea e whakaoti te whārite inenga o ;

ε - taurangi matapōkere e faaite i te ine i waenga i te uara tūturu me te ariā.